NFL 2005 Mid-Season Report

Long before the season started, I gave my analysis of the NFL and my expectations for the 2005 season.  With the season half over, it’s time to revisit that analysis and make any necessary revisions for the 2nd half of the season.

AFC East
As expected, the Patriots have struggled.  In particular the defense has struggled, particularly due to injury to key players.  But even those who are still around—Bruschi, McGinness, etc.—have not made the impact they have in the past.  The Patriot passing game is doing very well, but the running game is struggling.  Corey Dillon is on pace for the worst season of his career.

I expected the Jets to challenge in the division, but they are in the basement thanks to the loss of Pennington.  I have concerns about Chad’s future.  Coming off surgery to his throwing shoulder last year, he had lost some oomph on his passes.  With another injury to the same shoulder, the Jets have to be concerned that their franchise QB may end up with a premature exit from the elite, maybe even from a career.

The only surprise in the division is that Miami has been competitive.  

The Patriots have an easier second half schedule, with lots of division games.  They will take the division with about a 10-6 record.  I’m not sure anyone else will even have a winning record.

AFC North
I pretty much nailed this division.  “So, the North comes down to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. I have to go with the Steelers in that one, but the Bengals will make it interesting.”  The first sentence is right on the money, the second remains to be seen.  I even nailed Cleveland and Baltimore.  So there’s not really much to report in this division.

I still like the Steelers to take the division.  They have beaten the Bengals once already.  Cincinnati is still young and inexperienced in the ways of winning.  As the season goes on and the pressure mounts, they will not rise to the challenge as well as the Steelers will.  Pittsburgh will take it by a game or so, but the Bengals will break 10 wins and should get a wildcard spot in the playoffs.  Way to go, Marvin Lewis.

AFC West
Back in June I didn’t know what to make of this division, and I still don’t.  Denver is playing great and leads the division by a game.  QB Jake Plummer is playing the best football of his career, not making the mental mistakes that have so undermined his career thus far.

San Diego is playing well too.  They are hampered in the standings by an 0-2 start.  But their biggest loss has been by 4 points.  With so many close games, conservative play calling has hurt them.  Witness the Jet game in Week 9.  Given the opportunity late to score a touchdown and go up by 15, Schottenheimer instead settled for a field goal and an 11 point lead.  This lead to the nail biting as the Jets came down and scored a touchdown and then came close to getting the go-ahead touchdown.  This in the same week when Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil went for it on 4th down, last play of the game, down by 3 to nail the win.  In a tough division like the AFC West, coaching must be a little bolder.

Kansas City has done better than expected.  But I don’t see them being a player in the post-season.  The passing game is not what it has been in recent years, and now with Priest Holmes out, the running game falls squarely on the less experienced Larry Johnson.  They will do well, but it won’t be enough.

Denver is playing the best it has since Elway left.  They will hold on to take the division and the Chargers will get the other wildcard spot.

AFC South
The Colts are rocking with the best record in football.  The offense is more flexible than ever.  Peyton is not dominating as he has in past seasons, but that’s because he’s handing off to James, who is.  Manning just takes what he’s given, and if he has to hand off to win, he does.  They still face the Bengals and the Steelers this year, but no one in this division is going to catch the Colts.

The one bit of egg on my face is Houston.  I said they would finally have a winning season this year.  Barring an outbreak of dominance and a 7-1 second half, it ain’t going to happen.  If they don’t draft an offensive lineman in the first round in next year’s draft (and some more in the next couple of rounds) the whole management and coaching staff should be fired.  It’s unbelievable that after all these years, the problems that plagued them in their inaugural season still do.

NFC East
I took Washington to win the division, but because Patrick Ramsey would prove himself a capable QB.  He still might someday, but Brunell has taken his job back and is playing his tail off.

I totally underestimated the Cowboys.  I thought with so many older players, the offense wouldn’t do much, and that the transition from 4-3 to 3-4 on defense would hamper that unit.  Both sides have been quite effective, particularly the defense.

I also totally underestimated the Giants.  I thought little of the defense, but they have been pretty good.  The offense has proven to be explosive, with the acquisition of Plaxico Burress being one of the great moves of last offseason.

Philly is about where I thought they would be.  Struggling.  Winning some, but struggling.

Who takes the division, one of the best in the league?  As of now, the Giants have a one game edge on Washington and Dallas.  I still don’t particularly like the Giant defense.  They held Washington scoreless, so one has to take New York over Washington.  In the end, I guess I have to go with Dallas to win it.  They’ve beaten New York once, have a pretty good defense, and one of the best offenses.  I still give Washington a shot.  Let’s just say one of those two will win the division, the other will the wildcard.

NFC North
This division stinks.  I actually swallowed my pride and predicted the Vikings to take the division.  How could I have ever believed in Minnesota?  I don’t care who they have on their roster.  I really don’t understand why they lose so much, but they are pretty bad.

Green Bay is doing worse than I would have expected.  On the other hand, I never would have expected so many injuries.  They are playing their 5th string running back, for crying out loud.

The Bears lead the division and are the only team with anything approaching respectability.  With a very good defense, a strong running game, and a QB who doesn’t screw up too often, they should easily win the division, though not with the best record ever.

NFC West
I will pause here for the laughter to subside.  Done?  OK.  Yes, I did actually pick the Cardinals to win the division.  I haven’t seen them play, so I can’t really nail why they lose.  Warner is being called a flop again, but he’s putting up very good yardage.  The Cardinal offense is certainly moving the ball, but not scoring.  I throw my arms up, but you do have to score to win, and Warner isn’t scoring.

What did I write when I said I gave up on Seattle?  “[That] probably means they will go to the Super Bowl.”  Well, they sit atop the division and many observers are now picking them as one of the teams to beat in the NFC.  They have one of the top offenses, particularly deadly on the run, and a respectable defense.  Can anyone in this weak division take them?  Nope.

NFC South
I was a little worried to start the season when the Panthers got off to a sluggish start.  But they are rocking now playing every bit the Super Bowl contender they were picked to be.  With Tampa fading and Atlanta stuck in a one-dimensional offense, Carolina should take the division as expected.  Atlanta will be right on their heels, but a little behind because of inadequate offensive diversity.  The Falcons get the wildcard.

Tampa did better than expected to start the season, but with injury to Griese and Cadillac Williams fading fast, after a furious start, the Buc season is going down.  They probably won’t have the losing season I predicted for them, not with so many wins to start the season.  But they will not be players in the post-season.

Playoff Predictions - AFC
Unlike the preseason predictions, I will now go on record with my playoff expectations and Super Bowl matchup.

1. Indianapolis.  Perfect through the first half of the season, featuring a well-balanced and deadly offense, and an improving defense with a very good line, it’s hard to see these guys at much less than 13 wins.  Tests will come against the Bengals, Steelers, Seahawks, and Chargers, but the rest are all winnable.  It is true they have had a soft schedule so far, but they really are that good.


2. Pittsburgh.  They have a well-balanced offense, particularly when Roethlisberger is healthy and playing.  They throw well and run well.  And need we point out they have a very good defense?


3. Denver.  They are also a very good team, but play in a tough division and have a lot of road games in the second half.  That will drop them a game or so back of the Steelers and give them the 3rd seed.


4. New England.  They are saved by playing in such a weak division.


5. Cincinnati.  They have a fantastic offense.  They have an advantage in record over the rest of the wild-card contenders and don’t have an overly difficult schedule to finish off the season.


6. San Diego.  Their standing is hurt by a slow start, some close losses, and a tough division.

Last year the AFC playoffs came down to two teams:  New England and Pittsburgh.  This year, there really are four teams in the mix:  Indy, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Cincy.  Yes, I said the Bengals.  San Diego is too conservative and New England is too hurt.

In the end, I will go with Indy and Pittsburgh to meet in the AFC title game.  They are just a bit better than the other two teams, though give Denver a real shot.  The Bengals will be overwhelmed by the pressure of a playoff run.  This would be a matchup of the last two AFC title game losers.  Both are lead by coaches who win a lot in the regular season, but have had frustration in conference title games.  Given that the only real weakness in Pittsburgh is their secondary, I have to give the edge to the Colts in that game.  Prediction:  Colts.

Playoff Predictions – NFC
This one is tougher to layout because the best teams are in competitive divisions.  But here goes.

1. Carolina.  Seattle’s schedule is a bit tougher in the second half, so I’ll give the edge to Carolina to get the better schedule.


2. Seattle.  Playing in a weaker division helps, but they still have to face the Giants, Eagles, and Colts, not mention a tough game in St. Louis.  They will win most of those, but will fall a game or so behind the Panthers.


3. Dallas.  They are already behind both Carolina and Seattle by a game and have a tough schedule.


4. Chicago.  Not all that good to begin with so one cannot expect them to gain on the other division winners.


5. Atlanta.


6. Washington.  Playing in such a tough division will cost them a game or so and drop them down to the bottom seed.

It’s easier to see the teams that won’t make it than those that will.  Chicago just doesn’t have the offensive power to stay up with the rest of the playoff cast.  Atlanta may make a splash, but until they develop a passing game, they will not get to the big game.  Besides, there are too many good defenses in the NFC playoff picture for the Falcons to go far.  Dallas, for all its strengths, is young on defense and Bledsoe can still be made to make mistakes against good defenses, which, again, dominate the NFC playoff picture.  The Redskins, as good as they are, are down to 6th seed and cannot be expected to go too far.  I guess I’ll hang onto my skepticism of Mark Brunell a bit.

So then it comes down to Carolina and Seattle.  The Panthers are the more mature and seasoned team.  They’ve been here before.  The one good thing about what happened last year is they are bound more tightly than most teams.  Seattle still has its tendency to fold under pressure.  Prediction:  Carolina.

Super Bowl Prediction
Carolina against Indy.  That should be a good game.  The Panthers are more balanced, not quite as good on offense as the Colts, but better on defense.  They have the experience edge, having been to a Super Bowl before.  I think they have the defense to confound the Colt offense enough to take the game.